LD – Mar/Apr ’16 – Promoting democracy in Middle East

This is also being listed as FX, due to the topic area and the Friedman article.

My first post on this topic had an article about Tunisia; how does the following article affect the message of the previous one?

Tunisian Town Simmers With Unrest Over Lack of Jobs and Investment

Egypt’s experience with democracy, and a quick summary of events in several other countries in the region.

Five years after Egypt’s Arab Spring – ‘We didn’t need a revolution’

Mustafa Akyol, the author of the book Islam Without Extremes – A Muslim Case for Liberty, discusses politics and Islam; how does what he says impact the resolution?

Akyol – How Politics Has Poisoned Islam

The following article may answer the question I just posed. We tend to think of democracy as what the political scientists call liberal democracy; is that what the Middle East would adopt? If it were an illiberal democracy, would it meet the terms of the resolution?

Hamid – The Future of Democracy in the Middle East – Islamist and Illiberal – The Atlantic

In January I posted about foreign policy realism. Friedman’s article, which should be in everyone’s FX files (it covers the entire region), might be the best example of arguments that could be used on the Neg side of the resolution (summary: it’s hopeless). Is this applied Realism?

Friedman – The Many Mideast Solutions

Watching the Arab Spring uprisings several years ago, one name kept coming up on the question of transitioning to democracy – Gene Sharp. He’s a specialist on nonviolent methods. The following work of his may also be of use.

From Dictatorship To Democracy

FX – Iraq

When you just can’t catch a break:

Amid battle against IS, Iraqis face cholera outbreak

Outlook, and responses:

Military Analyst Again Raises Red Flags on Progress in Iraq

Iraq fears a ‘brain drain’ as educated young people head to Europe

These two go together:

Russian Intervention in Syria Excites Iraq’s Disillusioned Shiites

Younis – Iraq Should Fear Russia’s Help

As a footnote, Iraqi Shiite militia forces are in Syria, fighting with Assad’s forces under an Iranian general and with Russian air support (for the latest assault on Aleppo).

FX – Migrants

Hungary continues to show such charming manners.

Hungary Accuses Migrant Protesters of Terrorism for Clashing With Police

Croatia gets stuck in the middle.

Asylum seekers confront rejection as Europe puts up roadblocks

17,000 Migrants Stranded in Croatia by Border Crackdown

Relief of the backed up pressure?

Hungary, Slovenia start to allow some migrants to pass through from Croatia

If the land mines don’t get you…

Another Hazard for Migrants in Europe – Poisonous Mushrooms

Another must-have overview article.

8 reasons Europe’s refugee crisis is happening now

Today’s guest appearances:

France: Does the second story explain the first story?

A Belated Welcome in France Is Drawing Few Migrants

Migrants Settled In Europe Feel Overshadowed By Current Refugees

Slovakia: Not to be confused with Slovenia.

Slovakia Rejects EU’s Call For Mandatory Migrant Quotas

Iraq: …and Facebook!

Facebook is the new travel guide for Iraqis headed to Europe

History lesson: Kosovo

Krasniqi – Like the Syrians, I fled my country (Kosovo) – Here’s what you don’t understand about refugees

FX – Middle East

ISIS: No bin Laden or Mullah Omar to claim the caliphate.

Al-Qaeda leader criticizes Islamic State for dividing jihadist ranks

Iraq: Note the author’s qualifications.

Khalilzad – Iraq, Another turning point – reform efforts

Iran: Playing to his base, then an interview with the first article’s author.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Says Israel Won’t Exist in 25 Years

Statements Show Nuclear Deal Did Not Change Iran’s View Of Israel

Speaking of author qualifications! This also suggests why we’d look like idiots if Republicans succeeded in blocking the deal.

Cameron, Hollande and Merkel – Why we support the Iran deal

Now what.

What’s Next for the Iran Nuclear Deal

FX – Around the World

Migrants; EU first.

EU: Roger Cohen offers some historical perspective – and the Boldini quote at the end of the article begs to be used in an FX speech intro.

Roger Cohen – Aylan Kurdi’s Europe

A small article in today’s local paper mentioned the number of foreign IDs they’re finding beside the roads in Serbia, just before the Hungarian border. Apparently people who aren’t Syrian are ditching their identities and ‘becoming’ Syrian because they think it’ll improve their chances at EU admittance. Iraq, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh IDs were all mentioned.

Iraqis join an intensifying flow of refugees to Europe from Turkey

Germany:

German Quota System Highlights Possible Path and Pitfalls for Handling Crisis

Despite Warm Welcome, There’s A Backlash Against Migrants In Germany

Hungary: More perspective – a refugee’s train trip across Hungary – in 1979.

Callimachi – A Train Journey From Communism to Freedom, Almost Ended in Hungary – 1979

Australia: More on their tough response. Refugees, or economic migrants?

Australia Uses Tough Measures To Keep Migrants Out

Guatemala: Elections!

Ballots Tallied After Guatemalans Vote For Next President

Afghanistan: Transitions from cult-of-personality figures are rarely smooth.

Taliban’s New Leader in Afghanistan Moves to Quash Dissent

China: Lawyers aren’t the only ones feeling the heat.

Caijing Journalist’s Shaming Signals China’s Growing Control Over News Media

India: Games (rich) people play – apparently everywhere.

India targets tax evaders who hide ‘black money’ at home and abroad

Venezuela: More on the expulsions of Colombians.

Mass Deportations Fuel Tension Along Venezuela-Colombia Border

And to finish a truly global trip, the Arctic, with special guest appearances by China and Russia.

US builds up Arctic spy network as Russia and China increase presence – LA Times

FX – Middle East

Turkey: If it’s not a fair fight, will it be a fair vote?

Turkey Calls For New Elections Amid Fighting With Kurds, ISIS

Afghanistan: Speaking of elections…

Afghanistan’s Electoral Reform Plan Is Met With Skepticism

Iraq: Military and civil matters.

West – Why US generals don’t want advisers on the front lines in Iraq

Protests in Iraq Bring Fast Promises, but Slower Changes

Iraq and Syria: ISIS and the destruction of history; link to the original to preserve the map.

Map: There are 10 world heritage sites in Iraq and Syria. Nine are in danger

Iran: Dionne mentions one of the major ideas in Political Science – Realism. The second article is the one he refers to in his column, which describes it in more depth.

Dionne – Iran and the case for realism

Betts – Realism Is an Attitude, Not a Doctrine – The National Interest

Gaza: Interactions (or not) with Iran and Israel.

Iran’s post-sanctions windfall may not benefit Hamas

Faking Doctors’ Notes to Escape Gaza War Zone

FX – The entire Middle East situation in a nutshell

Roger Cohen gives one of the most succinct overviews of the region that I’ve ever read. A must-have article for team files, though you may need several copies for the each of the files of the different countries he discusses. (And read it before you file it!)

Roger Cohen – Middle Eastern Zen

FX – Around the world

Middle East first…

Iran: Check out Scowcroft’s qualifications – he’s no pro-Obama liberal.

Scowcroft – The Iran deal – An epochal moment that Congress shouldn’t squander

Iraq: The title says it all.

Beyond terrorism, Iraq’s leader is struggling to fight corruption

Afghanistan: Dotsum has been a key player for a lot of years – you should know who he is. Second article is about what we in this country feel is a key part of a functioning democracy. (Is it elsewhere?)

Full Bellies Are the Measure of Afghan Influence and Hospitality

With US withdrawal looming, a nascent Afghan press is in peril

Yemen and Saudi Arabia: from NPR

U.N. Criticizes Saudi-Backed Operations In Yemen, But U.S. Stays Silent

Other places…

China: Breaking economic news has quieted down, so there’s time for more analysis.

Currency Devaluation Is a Short Step in China’s Long Advance

India: Sociology and economics collide.

Pande et al – Why Aren’t India’s Women Working

Venezuela: Playing political hardball to retain power.

9 Opposition Candidates Barred From Venezuela’s December Ballot

Burma: What happens when you don’t have birthright citizenship.

Myanmar Lawmaker Barred From Re-election on Citizenship Grounds – Rohingya disenfranchisement

FX – Around the world

China: Latest currency news (notice the difference between the currencies in the basket, and China’s currency), and the U.S. isn’t their only cyber-espionage target.

China’s Currency Again Left Out of IMF Basket

Chinese hackers may have turned sights on India, new report says

Malaysia: Worth watching – this one won’t be going away soon.

Sreenevasan – Among Malaysia’s Many Scandals

Israel: In favor of a two-state solution. Notice the author’s qualifications.

Bar – Israel’s Other Existential Threat Comes From Within

Greece: PM resigns, calling for snap elections.

Syriza Dissenters Form New Party in Greece

What Alexis Tsipras’s Announcement Means for Greece

Russia: Domestic intrigue, foreign leverage (not!)

Russia’s summer of intrigue – Political trials take center stage

Russia used to have a powerful weapon in its energy sector – Not anymore

Zakaria expands on the energy sector article, and includes Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia.

Zakaria – From Russia to Iran, the consequences of the global oil bust

Under the ‘everything is economics‘ heading, some applied econ. Here’s an analytical framework worth having in your Forensics toolchest. Applicable to a lot of the countries on which you’ll be speaking this year.

Why some billionaires are bad for growth, and others aren’t

FX – Middle East

Quick hits from around the region.

Turkey:

Erdogan, ISIS, and Turkey’s War Against the Kurds – The Atlantic

Afghanistan: The incident isn’t necessarily unusual, but the methodology is a change. A new trend? Does it complicate the fight against the Taliban?

Police Officers Are Killed at a Checkpoint in Afghanistan’s South

South Sudan: For a country that began with such promise, a rapid and often-fatal breakdown.

South Sudan’s President Lets Deadline for Signing a Peace Deal Pass

Iraq: More on The Surge, from NPR.

Peter Beinart: GOP Uses The Surge To Squash Doubts About The Iraq Invasion

Yemen: That the Houthi advance would be stopped was likely, what follows after that was/is the unknown.

In parts of Yemen, rebels have lost control – No one else has it yet

Lebanon: An interesting retrospective from a British diplomat, via NPR.

British Ambassador Tom Fletcher Says Goodbye To Lebanon